Election Run-Down with Martha Zoller: Senate Race

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Georgia is headed for another big election cycle in 2014, including races for Senate and governor’s office. Voters will additionally vote for congressional seats through out the state. FYN recently sat down with leading local pundit and radio talk show host Martha Zoller to help us sort it all out and give us her take on the upcoming elections.

It all started in January, when Saxby Chambliss announced his retirement, creating copious candidates swarming to fill the position. Since the beginning of the year the field has been filling up and apparently continues to do so. Here’s the cast of candidates so far. Republicans: Rep. Paul Broun (10), Rep Phil Gingrey (11), Rep Jack Kingston (1), Karen Handel, and Derrick Grayson. Democrats: Branko Radulovacki.

Zoller calls Rep Jack Kingston’s the most grassroots campaign so far. Kingston, who announced last month, currently represents the first congressional district in the Savannah area. He found notoriety for compiling his “pork book,” a compellation of excessive spending. He’s running as a Conservative, but only received a 70 percent rating from the Heritage Foundation Action Scorecard, which uses votes, co-sponsorships, and other legislative activity to gauge how conservative members of Congress are. Despite his comparatively mediocre rating from Heritage, Zoller hailed some of the congressman’s highpoints, saying he has a strong conservative record. First, longevity; he has the longest legislative record of all the candidates with 20 years in the U.S. House of Representatives. He also served in the Georgia State House from 1985 to 1992. Second, he voted against some pieces of big government legislations, such as TARP and the first stimulus bill. Zoller says he has money and the ability to raise money. Here, she notes that he raised the most money in the last election. As a caveat, though, she says the congressman will have to answer to past comments while serving on the Appropriations Committee.

“If he can…get his message a little more focused, I think he’ll be the most formidable candidate (in the race),”

she says. Zoller says he would be able to win South Georgia and cobble together areas around Athens, his home-town, although she says geography may have little influence on the election itself.

Congressman Paul Broun was the first to get in the race, announcing his candidacy in February. Broun gained notoriety in late 2011 and 2012 for his health care bill, which fully repeals Obamacare replacing it with a market-based health plan. For his part, Broun has received the highest conservative rating of all the candidates from the Heritage Foundation, scoring 95 percent. He has also been endorsed by Libertarian Icon Ron Paul.

“When Dr. Paul retired I picked up the mantle right where he left off by reintroducing his Audit the Fed bill. I also have continued to hold the line on restoring our Constitution, to cut government spending and to fully repeal Obamacare,”

Broun said in an April press release. Like Kingston, though, Zoller says Broun will have to answer for past comments she calls out of the main stream, which she says is his biggest weakness. However, she says he’s staying very much on message, which could help him forge a path to victory.

All candidates have to find a way to reach voters who don’t go to meetings, townhalls or political events, Zoller says. The calculation goes like this: approximately 30,000 statewide attend meetings and, in 2010 about 700,000 people voted in the primaries. So, the trick for candidates, she says, is getting their message to the other 670,000 or so who don’t attend meetings. She says the way to this is media.

Zoller says 11th District Congressman Phil Gingrey’s age will be one his challenges.

“I firmly believe that this election is about 2020, not 2013,”

she says.

“Who (ever) gets elected needs to be electable in 2020 also.”

In addition to the 72 year-old’s age, she says some of his past quotes will pose a problem. Zoller notes, though, that as of March 30th, Gingrey had the most money of all candidates, saying he’s been raising money quietly.

“If he can raise another 6 or 700,000 (dollars) like he did last time, then he’s still in contention,”

she says.

Statewide, Karen Handel is the candidate with the most name recognition, recently winning a Fulton County straw poll, her home county. Zoller says that it would’ve been a bad sign if she didn’t. Handel’s name recognition is due more to her recent gubernatorial race against Nathan Deal, than her stint as Georgia Secretary of State, but Zoller emphasizes that Handel won the latter statewide. Handel will win at least 30 percent of the vote, she predicts, because she’s a woman. Prior to holding office as secretary of state, Handel served as Chair of the Fulton County Board of Commissioners. Although the experience may have yielded a slight voting record if any, Handel faces candidates with several years of congressional voting records. This will pose a challenge in convincing voters she has the necessary experience for the office. At the same time, though, Zoller says Handel’s not an outsider, but may try to present herself as one.

Derrick Grayson has also announced, offering a more Libertarian platform.

“It is time we go back to the conservative values and the principles of limited government and individual responsibility that helped make America a great nation,”

his website states. Zoller said she did not know much about Grayson because at this point the candidate seems to be lying low.

Two other names for the senate race have surfaced, neither of which have officially announced their candidacy yet.

The cousin of former governor Sonny Purdue, David Purdue has launched an exploratory committee. His last name will draw some name recognition, but Zoller says he hasn’t been in the fray yet and is not sure of his stances on the issues. She said she’s never known anyone to launch an exploratory committee who hasn’t entered the race. So, it’s likely we’ll see Purdue soon take the plunge.

And, Zoller says the other name mentioned is the real outsider, Kelly Loeffler. Loeffler and her husband own the WNBA and a company called ICE, which is considering buying the NYSE. As such, Loeffler has a strong financial background and with her money could be a self-funder. Zoller says the other candidates are nervous about a Loeffler-run.

“They’re worried about a person who could write a $25 million check,”

she says. This could be a blessing and a curse. The blessing is that she would have plenty of money to run a strong campaign. However, Zoller says that Georgia hasn’t been friendly to first-time candidates or self-funders.

So far, only one Democrat has announced, Branko Radulovacki. A psychiatrist from Atlanta, Radulovacki says he doesn’t have enough money to fully fund his campaign, so he says he will continue his work rather than becoming a fulltime candidate. The doctor also says he doesn’t have a political platform yet but said he supports President Obama.

“My immediate goal is for voters to get to know me and what I have done and to hear their concerns,”

he said in a report from the Rome News Tribune. Radulovacki’s announcement last week, though, appeared to steal the thunder of Michelle Nunn, the expected Democratic candidate. Nunn, daughter of former Georgia state senator Sam Nunn, was one of the few names unfurling in Democratic circles prior to last week. As CEO of the non-profit Points of Light, Nunn could be seen as a moderate, although she seems quiet on her stance on certain issues and making a decision to run for senate.

As such, Zoller called it a big leap to say the Georgia senate seat could go Democrat. On the prospect of Nunn running, Zoller calls Nunn an unknown quantity.

“If all they’re really looking at is the children and grandchildren of previously elected Democrats in Georgia,”

she said,

“then they’re still in serious trouble from a party standpoint.”

If Nunn was an unknown quantity, then how much more of an unknown quantity is Radulovacki?

Zoller says it’s not necessarily early in the race, but it’s not late either. Candidates announcing as late as January, she says, wouldn’t be too late, because this is when most people in earnest start to pay attention to elections.

Spring-boarding on Political Scientist Larry Sabato’s analysis, Zoller says Republicans are expected to pick up between two and 19 seats in the House, retaining its majority, and could possibly win the eight needed seats to take the majority in the Senate. Twenty Senate Democrats are up for reelection next year.

All this analysis should tell us one thing: it’s never too early to pay attention, because Election Day will be here before we know it.

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